How bad could it get?
In a speech in Virginia today, President-elect Obama was right to warn about a deep and prolonged recession, and to urge bold, immediate action to counter distressing trends in the economy and the jobs market. Read more.

How long would a job-market recovery take?
One year into the recession and the U.S. economy has already lost nearly 2 million jobs. And the future looks bleak: full job-market recovery may take much longer than previous recoveries. This week's Economic Snapshot looks at evidence from the last two recessions, which suggests that employment levels would not fully recover until mid-2010 or beyond.

Education accountability and the Obama administration
The Obama administration and Congress must decide what to do about re-authorization of the school accountability provisions of No Child Left Behind (NCLB), now two years overdue. This new EPI Policy Memo analyzes the failures of NCLB's accountability rules, and sketches out new directions that could renew a commitment to accountability in a way that avoids NCLB's distortion of American public education.

A Rescue Plan for Main Street
The economy is undeniably in dire straits and needs help. EPI outlines a comprehensive rescue plan for these times—one that can get Main Streeters on their feet and back to work, thus easing the impact of recession and helping to get the economy back on solid ground. Read the EPI Policy Memo requested by the Obama transition team, A Rescue Plan for Main Street, for the full details.

Auto rescue is good news
EPI's vice president Ross Eisenbrey said, "The auto rescue announcement is good news. Failure to provide the bridge loan would have cratered the economy, which is already in a deep hole. The Big 3 automakers and the United Auto Workers have a tough road ahead, but with support from the Obama administration, they—and the communities they operate in—can survive and prosper." EPI detailed the economic consequences of an auto industry failure in When Giants Fall, by EPI economist Robert Scott.

Automaker bankruptcies would cost up to 3.3 million U.S. jobs
This Economic Snapshot shows how allowing the U.S. auto industry to go bankrupt would cost jobs in every single state.

A Feeble Recovery: Updated
In early May, EPI released a paper, A Feeble Recovery: The Fundamental Economic Weakness of the 2001-07 Expansion, that argued the United States had entered a new recession and compared the expansion that had just ended to previous ones. EPI found that the latest expansion ranked either at or near the bottom on a range of measures, especially those most relevant to working families like job creation and compensation growth. National Bureau of Economic Research recently confirmed EPI's judgment on the recession's timing. In light of that official recognition, EPI is re-releasing its comparison paper, which has also been updated to reflect government data revisions in many of the key series cited in the report.

Job losses accelerate at alarming rate in November
Payrolls contracted by over half a million last month and unemployment rose to 6.7%, according to the latest report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The under-employment rate—the broadest measure of weakness in the job market—soared to 12.5%. For analysis of the report, read EPI's Jobs Picture.

Jared Bernstein appointed to Obama-Biden economic team
Vice President-elect Joe Biden announced his selection of Jared Bernstein to the newly-created position of Chief Economist and Economic Policy Advisor to the Vice-President.

Over 3 million jobs would disappear if U.S. automakers go bankrupt
If bankruptcy shuttered one or more U.S. automakers, the effect would be the loss of up to 3.3 million jobs in the U.S. within the next year, according to a new study released by EPI. Michigan alone could lose over 400,000 jobs, and stands to be the hardest hit state both in the number of jobs lost and the share of total state employment (8.9%) lost. If the Big Three fall, they would take down more than auto worker jobs: when the wages from those auto sector jobs dry up, an additional 576,700 to 2.1 million "re-spending" jobs would be lost. The report, When Giants Fall, lists possible job losses in each state and the District of Columbia.

The offshoring of innovation
The U.S. innovation system appears to be undergoing a significant transformation, and the U.S. policy discussion needs to catch up. Most signs point to a rapid increase in the offshoring of R&D and innovation, yet we have poor information on the nature of the work that is moving overseas. EPI's Briefing Paper, The Offshoring of Innovation, tries to untangle some of the recent trends in an attempt to help clarify the questions that need to be asked by policy makers going forward.

Stimulus: Bringing us from bad to better
EPI's latest Policy Memo explains why the economic well-being of millions of American families hinges on getting an effective stimulus package into the system quickly.

What economics teaches about globalization
The story of international trade for the American economy is not win-win, but rather good news, bad news. The good news is that some Americans will reap large rewards, and these rewards will actually be so large as to raise the average income of the entire American economy. The bad news is that many more Americans will lose ground. EPI's new book, Everybody Wins, Except for Most of Us, explains the simple economic theory easily found in almost any textbook that predicts how trade will have an upside and a downside. The book makes amply clear that it is time for the United States to begin its first serious political discussion about how to cut the majority in on the gains from international trade.(Press release [PDF])

Congress should not pass the flawed Colombia trade pact
The lame-duck Bush administration is trying to link support for an auto-industry rescue loan to Congressional passage of the stalled Colombia Free Trade Agreement. The loan is a good idea, but the Colombia trade agreement is a very bad one. For a full understanding of why making a rescue loan contingent on passing another free trade act is such a bad idea, read this EPI policy memo.

An investment, not a bailout
This EPI policy memo provides a multitude of reasons why the $25 billion rescue loan being considered for automakers is essential to maintaining the industry and its 3 million jobs.

The work that remains
Read about EPI's Nov. 13 event co-sponsored with the Eisenhower Foundation regarding the progress made on racial inequality since the Kerner Commission report was released 40 years ago.

Election shows the center has shifted in economic thinking
Commenting on the historic election of Barack Obama to the presidency, Economic Policy Institute President Lawrence Mishel writes that U.S. economic thinking has undergone a dramatic shift, and that Americans are increasingly open to careful and effective government intervention. "We can declare with confidence and relief that the conservative era is over," Mishel said in a statement issued Wednesday morning. "It is now possible to build an economy with widely shared prosperity." Mishel noted that many Americans remain skeptical of government, especially given the mismanagement of the past eight years. "The task ahead is to fashion policies that will improve the economic circumstances of the vast majority, and thereby restore confidence," he wrote.

Economic stagnation for Hispanic Americans
Between 2000 and 2007, the U.S. gross domestic product grew by 18% and worker productivity by 19%. Yet despite these gains, the Hispanic population did not benefit from the wealth that it helped create in the U.S. economy in this period. The EPI Briefing Paper, Hispanics and the Economy: Economic Stagnation for Hispanic Americans Throughout the 2000s, examines the data that show how this group experienced a loss of median income and an increase in the poverty and unemployment rates. The Hispanic population began the 2000s business cycle significantly worse off economically than the nation as a whole, and they are ending the cycle in virtually the same place. For many Hispanics the current economic downturn will mean they will fall further behind the nation as a whole. (Press release [PDF])

A tough economy, by the numbers
By many measures, the U.S. economy has steadily worsened since the beginning of 2008. EPI economists have compiled a one-page reference guide to that decline, featuring data on wages, employment, bankruptcy filings, pensions and foreclosures. For the grim but important fact sheet, click here.

Consumption spending falls for first time in 17 years
Read EPI's GDP Picture for analysis of the latest Commerce Department report on gross domestic product (GDP).

EPI's Basic Family Budgets calculator updated
With income on the decline, unemployment rising, and experts predicting a potentially long dry spell for the economy, people are understandably worried about how they can make ends meet. EPI's newly updated online Family Budget Calculator provides data on the cost of the essentials for families of various sizes wherever they may live across the country, with data for more than 600 locations, including cities, towns, and rural areas in all 50 states and the District of Columbia. Accompanying the calculator are a Briefing Paper and technical documentation [PDF] that give an overview of family budget trends and provide details on the data sources. (Press release [PDF])

More EPI testimony before Congress on recovery proposals
EPI testifies before Congress for the second time in a week, as John Irons made the case for the right kind of stimulus in his testimony before the House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure in a hearing entitled: "Infrastructure Investment and Economic Recovery."

Grading Education
We should hold public schools accountable for effectively spending the vast funds with which they have been entrusted. But instead of grading a school's progress in just math and reading (No Child Left Behind), we should hold schools accountable for the broad outcomes we expect from public education — basic knowledge and skills, critical thinking, an appreciation of the arts, physical and emotional health, and preparation for skilled employment — and then develop the means to measure, and ensure, schools' success in achieving them. Richard Rothstein's new book, Grading Education, describes a new kind of accountability plan for public education, one that relies upon both higher-quality testing and professional evaluation. Read the introduction and a press release online, or simply order your copy from EPI's bookstore.

Congressional testimony on stimulus proposals
EPI's Jared Bernstein made the case for the right kind of stimulus in his testimony before the full House Committee on Education and Labor in a hearing entitled: "Building an Economic Recovery Package: Creating and Preserving Jobs in America."

The False Fiscal Debate
Many Americans—including the moderators of all three presidential debates—assume that the Wall Street rescue plan will force the next President to at least postpone, if not abandon, many of the economic plans they have drawn up for the country. But John Irons, EPI's research and policy director, says that assumption is a false one, and he lays out the reasons why in this policy memo.

Large declines in employer-sponsored health coverage continue
The health coverage most Americans receive is becoming harder to find. Since 2000, workers and their families have become uninsured at alarming rates: there were over 4 million more uninsured workers in 2007 than in 2000. An EPI Briefing Paper by Elise Gould finds that employer-sponsored health insurance coverage has declined for the seventh year in a row. Between 2006 and 2007, public insurance was the only reason that more Americans did not become uninsured as coverage fell through work. This Economic Snapshot is illustrated by an interactive map that shows the loss in employer-sponsored health insurance coverage in all states and the District of Columbia within the under-65 population, workers, and children from 2000 to 2007.

The burden of outsourcing
The U.S. non-oil trade deficit has displaced jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, adding up to 5.6 million jobs lost or displaced in 2007. This Economic Snapshot shows how no state is immune to the corrosive effect of the U.S. trade deficit on U.S. workers and domestic economy. A companion Briefing Paper looks closer at the growing U.S. trade deficits, state-by-state, and examines losses by industries. (Press release [PDF])

The facts about CEO pay
CEO pay has emerged as a very hot topic in Washington's debate over the proposed $700 billion Wall Street bailout. Details on the meteoric rise of CEO pay in the United States, plus comparisons to workers' pay and to CEO pay in other leading economies, can be found in The State of Working America, 2008-2009. Download a PDF of the relevant section on executive pay. [PDF]

State of Working America 2008/2009
Released in time for Labor Day, the advanced edition of EPI's authoritative volume The State of Working America 2008/2009 is now available. Described as the "most comprehensive independent analysis of the U.S. labor market" by the Financial Times, the 11th edition shows that the business cycle that started in 2001 will be one for the record books. In fact, for the first time on record, middle-class families are at the end of a recovery without ever having regained the ground they lost during the previous recession. Gross domestic product and historically high productivity growth should have raised paychecks up and down the income ladder, but instead the benefits of that growth have bypassed most of the people who made it possible. Prepared biennially since 1988, The State of Working America scrutinizes family incomes, jobs, wages, unemployment, wealth, poverty, and health care coverage, describing the economy's effect on our nation's standard of living. Visit the State of Working America Web site now and in coming months to read the executive summary, introduction, select chapters, press releases, and other related material, as well as to order your copy of the advanced and final edition (to be released by ILR/Cornell University Press in January 2009). (Press release [PDF])

A Plan to Revive the American Economy
Collaborating with some of the nation's top progressive thinkers, EPI researchers have been exploring solutions to our most difficult economic problems for the better part of two years. Now, the best of these proposals have been compiled into a small, easy-to-read Policy Handbook called A Plan to Revive the American Economy. For more on the ongoing effort to build a better way forward, please see www.SharedProsperity.org, and be sure to check out Toward Shared Prosperity, a video introduction to EPI's Agenda for Shared Prosperity. (Press release [PDF])

U.S.-China trade gap: Massive job losses for U.S. workers
Unbalanced U.S. trade with China since 2001 has had a devastating effect on U.S. workers. This Economic Snapshot reveals that between 2001 and 2007, the trade deficit lost or displaced 2.3 million jobs in all 50 states and the District of Columbia, including 366,000 last year. As the nation's economic woes mount, a new EPI Briefing Paper, The China Trade Toll, details the devastating impact that the growing U.S. trade deficit with China is having on American jobs, wages, and key industries. (Press release [PDF])

Expert task force calls for broader, bolder approach to education policy
A task force of national policy experts with diverse religious and political affiliations, in public policy fields including education, social welfare, health, housing, and civil rights have launched a campaign to break a decades-long cycle of reform efforts that promised much and have achieved far too little. In ads in The New York Times and The Washington Post, the task force — convened by EPI's president and education policy director, Lawrence Mishel — calls for a "Broader, Bolder Approach to Education" to raise achievement levels for disadvantaged children. Read the statement of the task force and to add your name to the list of signers.

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